Inflation concerns slow down, US dollar strengthens, silver price jumps initially and then pulls back [SMM Weekly Silver Market Review]

Macro side, the US core CPI for June released this week met expectations, with mild inflation data briefly boosting simultaneous gains in US stocks and bonds. Driven by delayed expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, the US dollar index continued its rebound. US Treasury Secretary Besant stated in a Bloomberg TV interview on July 15 local time that the upcoming deadline for the US-China tariff truce scheduled for next month is flexible, and market participants need not worry about the cutoff date, as current negotiations between the two sides are "in good shape," with talks expected to take place in the coming weeks. Short-term profit-taking sentiment led to slight corrections in gold and silver prices, with subsequent focus recommended on US-China tariff negotiations and other economic data clues.

[Economic Data]

Negative: US June unadjusted CPI year-on-year at 2.7% (previous: 2.40%, expected: 2.70%)

Positive: US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 11 at 7.07 million barrels (expected: -552,000, actual: -3.859 million)

[Spot Market] Silver: Silver prices strengthened early in the week, hitting new highs on safe-haven sentiment, but later pulled back under pressure from a stronger US dollar and short-term speculative profit-taking. In the domestic spot market, as silver prices weakened, downstream buying the dip sentiment slightly recovered, though just-in-time procurement remained dominant. Transaction prices showed spot TD premiums for national standard silver ingots in Shanghai maintained at 2-3 yuan/kg or discounts of 7-8 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2508 contract, while large producers' ingots traded at TD premiums of 3-4 yuan/kg, though high-premium transactions proved difficult. After negotiations, some suppliers closed deals at parity or slight discounts against TD. As the spot-futures price spread narrowed toward the weekend, some suppliers lowered premiums to near parity for sales. Mid-week, only select downstream enterprises bought the dip during silver's brief pullback, with most traders adopting a wait-and-see approach, leading to thinner transactions.

》View SMM precious metals spot quotes